Tuesday, August 15, 2017

If you think that some computer geek is the richest person in the world then you are stupid

If you think that some computer geek is the richest person in the world then you are stupid
Who actually owns the world?
You probably might think that this might be a conspiracy theory or something like that but the information I am going to provide you is easily available on yahoo finance
So let’s start
Here is the list of biggest corporations by market cap

So first one is Apple and we go to Yahoo finance to see who are the main shareholders of Apple

As you can see the largest shareholders of Apple are Vanguard Group, Blackrock, State Street Corporation, FMR, Berkshire, Price (T.Rowe) Associates
Out of this list the most famous one is Berkshire, we now that Warren Buffet has to do a lot with that company. Now let’s go the second company, Alphabet

Same old palls again, so let’s go to the next one, to Microsoft. We already know by the common perception that Gates has to be the major shareholder since he is the richest men in the world at this point.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/holders?p=MSFT

This is are direct holders, and the reason I haven’t showed the direct holders for the above two companies because they were just so small in percentage that I didn’t find it worthwhile putting it here. However in the case of Microsoft Gates has some large shares compared to other direct holders but unfortunately Yahoo finance does not give the percentage of how much the direct holders have so we have to manually calculate this. And it is pretty easy to do, we just need to divide the shares of William by the total shares outstanding so 166 million shares divided by 7.2 billion shares outstanding which gives us 2.3% or roughly 13 billion USD out of 560 billion USD which is what all of Microsoft is forth (checked at 15.08.2017). So now let’s see the other shareholders of Microsoft



Oh, same old pals again. Now you can keep going on that list and to the fortune 500 and you will see roughly the same old guys. So now just to give you a clue, only from these three companies, Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet we can calculate Blackrock Inc.’s shares equal in value to 90 billion USD, just a little more than what our friend Gates has. Now Blackrock owns equity in any company basically. So now you are thinking so these 10 or 15 companies are actually the really owners of all companies… but don’t get hasty, we first have to check who owns these companies. So let’s start with Blackrock Inc.

So Blackrock is actually owned by,
23% - PNC Financial Services Group
5.9% Norges Bank
5.8% Vanguard Group
Oh wait, so now Vanguard group who was on top of the list of owners for the above showed Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft actually owns 5.8% of Blackrock who was second on the list!? Ok, so now let’s see who owns PNC Financial Services Group, can you guess who we are going to see on the list?
Yes, vanguard again but not only, Blackrock also on the list, which is really strange because it looks like it actually owns the shares of the company (PNC) which owns the shares of Blackrock. But look on the other companies on the list. Wellington Management Company and below we see the Vanguard/Wellington Fund, doesn’t the names rhyme? But don’t forget other companies, State Street Corporation, FMR, Capital World Investors which as we showed above was on the list of Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet holders. You can look further at other companies and you will eventually figure out that Blackrock is actually owned by Vanguard.

Now we return to FMR and State Street Inc who are usually on the top 10 when it comes to the list of owners of fortune 500. So who owns FMR and State Street Inc. So State street is owned by once again Vanguard and Blackrock and by other Vanguard owned companies.

Now when it comes to FMR, it is rather hard to find. Some sources say that 25% is owned by Abigail Johnson while others state Petyr Lynch has significant ownership. But whatever might the case, it is clear that family ownership of Johnsons is no less than 49% and Lynch probably owns somewhere between 10-15%. But if you keep looking, you will find that the biggest player is Vanguard Group and it owns through multilayer company sets at least 40% of fortune 500. So basically Vanguard makes the decision when it comes to running the companies and that includes electing the board of directors. And now who owns Vanguard? It says that since it is a mutual fund it is owned by the shareholders but unfortunately we do know now who are those shareholders are. But I know one thing, if you go and become a shareholder in Vanguard group, you don’t get to vote like you would if you were a shareholder in Apple. So basically, even the owners of Vanguard were common people, which is highly unlikely, then who is making the decisions if not the shareholders of Vanguard? These questions of course I can not answer. But, I will tell you a one funny joke… go to youtube and type Vanguard and see what comes up… you will not find even a single video on the largest company of the world.
Now we have to be fair on several points
Although Vanguard owns the largest stakes in all of the world’s largest companies including Toyota and Samsung, it does not however have any ownership in Chinese companies since they are mostly state owned. Also, they do not have large investments in Russian market unless they are acting so through other intermediaries which unfortunately I did not have the time to look into. But if there were any intermediary in the Russian market I would say Usmanov is one of them since he did lots of offshore business with the European market and he probably had some hand in it.
There is also one very interesting company on the list and it is Capital World Investors. They are American company as all of them are, and have stakes in several companies but their assets are mostly concentrated in Germany. They have large stakes in many German companies including Volkswagen. Now, the fact that Vanguard is the largest bad boy there is no question. But Capital World Investors is a very interesting one, although the ownership is not disclosed, yet the fact that they are in the German Market is very interesting to me. Well now I will tell you a theory which I am only contemplating and have no evident proof to back it up but still so here it goes.
So Hitler born in 1889, returns from serving in the world war I in 1918 (29 years old). Later he can’t stay in the regular army because he just couldn’t make the simple list and is discharged from the army in 1920 (31 years old) and the same year he goes full time to the Workers party which he year later himself renames to Nazy Party and becomes its leader (32 years old). Now, the guy who couldn’t get into the Vienna school of arts, who got dispelled from the Army, in one year becomes the leader of a whole party. Well, that might be possible, let’s keep going. In 1924 he goes to prison for treason for 5 years and released in 1925 (34 years old). And in 1929 Nazi party comes to power (40 years old). And the when the whole world was in great depression, including Germany, Hitler manages to secretly form the largest army and just attack and conquer everyone except Russians but never attacks Switzerland for some reason. Now,  I will not make any theories here, I just laid out what happened.

Now the question is it a good or a bad thing that one or several companies hold the world power? I think it is a pretty good since they have been doing rather a good job of it compared to the history of humans. Besides, would we want some arab, chinese or russian guys to take over google? So the next question which arises and the one which i cannot answer is how long these companies have existed. Vanguard was established in 1975. But I am sure that it existed beforehand by some other means. My guess would be that these powers existed from way before, probably coming to rise during Napoleon era but have gained their true supremacy after world war II. Powerful palls who were scattered all over the world have decided to make America their home! 


Sunday, August 13, 2017

What is happiness ?

First of all, before you read, please keep in mind that I am not some accredited person to be talking of these things, I am just writing my own thoughts on the subject.

There are many theories on happiness, all the great thinkers have indulged on this subject and made their own. I will just list some of the main theories suggested about the meaning of happiness.

1. Happiness is balance

Now what its means is that you are happy when you have a balanced life. You successfully balance your work, family, hobbies, friends...

Now this theory I think is pretty straightforward but at the same time too simple for us, complex humans, and this would be something like Trueman show. This theory I think is too general and I could argue that I have seen people who are perfectly happy but yet they have no family ties and are perfectly happy with having romances. Besides, humans are such a dark souls and many of us have really weird ways of getting satisfaction (do not mix it with pleasure) and just balance does not cut with me.

2. Happiness is a change of state

I will just give you an example in order to emit the description part... Let's assume that you are walking on the street and your happiness level is 6 on the 10 point scale (btw I won't mention 10 point scale anymore so always assume I am using that scale) so you are just above average on the happiness scale. Now assume that an angry dog comes at you and starts chasing you. At this point you are under the adrenaline and your happiness level is not measurable but if the dog catches you and bites you hard then you become unhappy whereas if you are able to climb a tree or runaway from the dog then you instantly become at least 9 at that point at least. So basically the change of state forces you to become happy while your life didn't change at all but just the fact that you were able to avoid unhappiness made you happy. So happiness is avoiding unhappiness!

This theory is also very good but i think it is more of a temporary solution and hence does not heal your soul so to speak!

There are dozens of theories like above mentioned and basically at the end of the day it says that everyone has their own meaning of happiness.

Now, it would be lame of me to write this post just to say that you have to find your own meaning of happiness. So here is my own theory, which I believe to be 100% true so it isn't a theory then but an axiom for me.

3. Happiness is progress

Before I start the description, I have to mention one underlining factor. For happiness to exist it has to be shareable. If you have seen the movie into the wild you will know what I am talking about. What it means is that you can't be happy alone on a deserted island although you might have everything you wanted and even a robot sex doll with a nice afghani hashish (some of you might disagree here :) ). So being able to share happiness with other people is essential to being happy.

Now that we have the basics, that you are not alone, we can go on explaining the happiness = progress axiom. Progress is divided into two parts:

Progress in quantity 

Now, remember the time when you were a kid and how getting a chocolate made you happy. However, after some time you would want more chocolate in order to be at the same happiness level.
If you are a professional tennis player, after winning your trophy in your first year you would then need to win two or more trophies the second year in your career in order to stay happy or to get happier. Same goes for your family. If your kid wins the school spelling bee contest then you would want him to win the regional contest and this also explains why an Arab sheikh wants more money even though he has $10 billions.

Progress in quality

Returning to your childhood, remember how rather simple things like getting a chocolate, playing sports or meeting your first teenage love could make you happy. However, as time went on, these simple events just did not cut it with you and you needed more complex things, events or meanings in life to be happy. So this is the second part of progress. You need more complex satisfactions be it materialistic, pleasure related or achievements and doing things that matter. So progress in the quality.

So basically, happiness is constant progress both in quality and quantity of everything that life has to offer; family, pleasure, achievements, success, work...
Now there are some essentials to it that I will explain which will make you understand why this simple axiom in life becomes so complicated.

In order for me to explain this I have to return to the chocolate again. First of all lets figure out why chocolate which made you so happy in childhood does not make you as happy anymore?
Is it because you had too much ?
No!
It is because you start to understand that there are far more important things in life than chocolate. Assume what would happen if you grew up with apes. Then your happiness would be very easy to explain. For you to be happy, you would need food, wife and authority over your fellow ape grown male and female friends. Now you might say it is the same way in life also, but it just has more points to it. But I will disagree with you and here is why. What if you were to be grown in a normal household and once you achieve an adulthood to be put on the community of ape grown people then could you be happy in that community? Even if you were to have authority over them and to take the hottest Tarzan chick as a wife...? why would it not make you happy? The answer is easy. Because you know better. Because you know that there are other things in life like being a Rockstar that would be much cooler than being the Tarzan leader. Which is why something that makes the simple minds (Tarzan ) happy does not make you happy equally. So now we are getting to the point. So why if progress is the way to happiness then we cant be happy in life? Cause if this is an axiom as I say then it would easy to make people happy by giving them slow but steady progress pace life. Which is btw how life is built in developed countries. High school - college - work - masters - higher management position - good pension (hooray) - good retirement. Now this would work and has worked perfectly during the industrialization period (when Ford started assembly first). And it still works for most people, I would say for about 60% of people compared to 90% in the Ford era. So the reason why it does not work so well now is because people are becoming prematurely smart and informed. So if you are reading this post and you have trouble being happy in life with the Henry Ford progress model then this is for you. The reason you are having trouble being happy is because you know better. You have read too much, seen too much that you know better than that this school - retirement program is just not for you. Because you have achieved this point where you know so much about life that simple things like chocolate and senior manager at 40 years does not make you tremble with happiness. Since you have gained so much knowledge, you just skipped steps on the quality ladder. You have jumped from getting the college degree satisfaction straight to the Elon Musk level. And the reason is simple. In the old days it was straightforward, unless you were born rich, you needed to work hard and long for many years to achieve big success in life and hence everyone excepted this quality ladder of progress. However now the times have changed. You see so many early success stories of billioners like facebook creators that you just want the same things. Moreover, you have some many Internet videos showing you, telling you that you are special and that you can also achieve the same success as Zuckerberg did even in a shorter time. So although the quantity ladder did not change, the quality ladder of progress has staggered enormously. Which is the reason why now there are so many college graduates who just don't want the long and hard career path route and want to hit it big fast.
Is this a bad thing or a good thing?
Well it has both sides of the coin.
It is because of this factor that we now have much more early bloomers and world is becoming a better place although not necessarily a happier place. Like Ivan Karamazov said, there are two sorts of people in life. The ones who don't know the truth and are happy and the once that do know the truth and are unhappy. So welcome to the second club (I assume so since you are reading this post). The reason you are unhappy is because you need to do big things, things that really matter, to be happy. 

And now the question is, what do we do?


It is logical that you might ask, now that I know that I am from the second club - the sufferer - the great doer... how do i go about doing great things and will I be successful?

And to be honest, there isn't a straightforward way of achieving success. It all comes down to persistence and to not giving up. You need to work so hard, so persistently that the only chance that you could leave should the chance for destiny to play its cards. And when I say for destiny to play its cards I mean coming head to head on the finish line with Usain Bolt so that only a photo analysis could determine who is the winner. Because at the end of the day, you need to be able to say that you did even more than you could and that only destiny was to blame for it. So while you are going for that kill, don't punish yourself if you are unsuccessful or not showing enough progress. Maybe you are just in the wrong sports or you just have this temporary bad luck, just remember nothing is permanent and that includes both bad and good luck; high and low spirit; high and low energy. Just remember, the only way for you to be happy if you are from the second club is to learn from your mistakes and keep going by just giving your best you can in your low energy days and max in your high energy days and then you will be happy not only on the height but also on the climb!